Sunday, September 05, 2004

So Much For The Experts

Back in June, I thought John Kerry would win the election. You see, I believed the "experts." The Kerry campaign were confident. they believed the election was "in the bag." Pollster John Zogby stated that the election was Kerry's to lose. Traditionally, undecided voters broke two to one for the challenger on election day. Historically, polling data shows there is usually a mini-surge towards the Democrat candidate during the dying days of the campaign.
The war in Iraq was going badly, the Abu Ghraib scandal dominated the news for weeks. And last, but not least, the mainstream media was (and still is) astonishingly biased towards Kerry.
Given all this, I believed Kerry would win all the states Al Gore won in 2000, and would also pick up Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Maine and a few other states besides.
The Democrat National Convention in Boston was more like a victory rally than a convention. The TV talking heads talked about Kerry "hitting a home run" and "closing the deal with the American people." Kerry's acceptance speech was declared a "grand slam" by excited TV anchors such as Dan Rather Biased, Tom Brokaw and Peter Jennings (The Three Stooges).
Everyone waited for the expected big bounce for Kerry.
There was no bounce.
At this point I should have learned my lesson: don't listen to these so-called experts. But they quickly recovered their composure, and began to rationalize what happened. It had already been a long campaign, they said. The Democrat nomination battle had been decided in early March. Most voters had already made up their minds; the bases were already solidified. Very few undecided voter remained for the two campaigns to fight over. In conclusion, the "experts" assured us that the GOP convention would yield a small bounce or no bounce at all.
On Friday - the day after the GOP convention ended - a Time poll gave Bush an 11 point lead. Just to show this was no fluke, a Newsweek poll released yesterday also gives Bush an 11 point lead (and a 13 point bounce).
The "experts" got it spectacularly wrong... again. From now on, I will listen to my instincts. Never again will I believe the TV talking heads. In fact, I think they should stop talking.

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